IGD forecasts that the away from home market will grow from £103.3bn in 2026 to £122.8bn by 2031, although inflation will account for around 85% of total value growth. 

However, IGD expects 2029 to be a turning point, with volume recovery beginning as demand gradually strengthens, due to improved economic conditions and modest gains in disposable income. 

Nicola Knight, head of AFH insight at IGD, said: “While pressures will continue over the next few years, the horizon shows promise, and businesses can emerge strongly if they focus investments on value, experiences and operational efficiency in the meantime.”

IGD’s revised forecast reflects weaker footfall across full-service restaurants, quick service restaurants and pubs during 2025, alongside lower than expected price inflation, as operators absorbed rising costs rather than risk further reductions in customer visits. Another key factor is the ongoing impact of geopolitical disruption. 

IGD also expects GLP‑1 (weight loss medication) adoption to reduce away from home spending by almost £1bn by 2031, having included its impact in the forecast for the first time. This reduction, IGD says, will be due to the medication affecting visit frequency and spend across the sector. 

Quick service restaurants are expected to remain relatively resilient due to their value positioning and convenience, although lower-income consumers reducing spend and downtrading opportunities becoming more limited will temper growth. 

By contrast, full-service restaurants and pubs face a slower recovery, with ongoing pressure on visit frequency, margins and spend per occasion continuing to weigh on performance. 

Knight commented: “As consumers become more selective, the best way for businesses to outperform the market is by understanding which occasions their customers are still prepared to prioritise and building propositions around them.”

A free report summary is available at igd.com.